JP Rangaswami makes some interesting and valid characterizations of what he calls "Conscientious Objectors" to Agile methods, particularly with respect to predictability of projects in terms of time and cost. I'd like to add another to the list:
The Lone Ranger: "Tonto, please hand me another silver bullet as I'm currently out of them and need one right away!"
As JP astutely notes: Where Agile is sometimes oversold is in the context of estimation. To me, software estimation is a bit like growing ear hair. It takes time to do it well. There aren’t that many short cuts.
The Lone Ranger is a bit of a derivative of the Conscientious Objectors patterned in JP's post because they not only adhere to the unrealistic "Fast, Cheap, and Good (FCG)" mantra of IT system development (or the time-honored "rectally-generated" analysis where cost/time are articulated with no analysis or fact-finding), they want it all planned out up front as would be attempted in a waterfall or other deliberate-process approach. And they usually want that on an FCG basis as well. Because Lone Rangers are continually creating and managing by crisis or extreme business conditions, they almost always fail to realize that there is currently no known method or process that can deal with large-scale requirements ambiguity/uncertainty in a fast-cheap-good manner.
Uncertainty and change are the primary drivers of project cost and time issues, regardless of the method employed to execute projects. I'm deeply skeptical of attempts to pattern any project management methodology - process-driven or Agile - as the only solution to resolve uncertainty coupled with similar claims to be completely predictable and FCG.
Project management methodologies do little to depress the left side of the "Cone of Uncertainty" developed by Steve McConnell a few years back. It is difficult and, at times, impossible to make project estimates or plan properly when there is too much uncertainty.
The key question to ask when being sold a bill-of-goods on any approach touted as the ultimate solution to all of one's business system problems is to ask "How specifically is this approach going to resolve my issues and issues yet-to-come up-front?" Pay close attention to the answers you receive. If you're a Lone Ranger or work with/for one, you may not like them as the bullets don't have much silver content.
Like JP, I'm doing an analysis of techniques to deal with these problems (have been for some time now actually), and will of course distribute my findings and opinions as an ongoing thread here.
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